BTC has fallen to a level not seen since November, and those postelection gains are starting to look very threadbare. We wanted alt season; we got altcoin Armageddon. The US government is now a cabal of Crypto Bros, but macroeconomic uncertainty is shaking the markets. It’s a confusing time.
Understanding the Current Market Situation
To make sense of where we are in the market, it helps to look back on how we got here. Today, we break down a new report that does just that, analyzing trends in crypto’s capital flows, derivatives growth, retail behavior, and, of course, memes.
The 2025 Gemini Glassnode Market Trend Report
Introduction to the Report
Today’s report is the 2025 Gemini Glassnode Market Trend Report. As the name suggests, it’s a collaboration between the centralized crypto exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins in 2014, and Glassnode, one of crypto’s top on-chain analytics providers since 2017.
The report was published by and bears Gemini’s name, but it was authored by Glassnode data analysts. Research reports of this kind often cover market developments during a single year or even a single quarter, but this one has a slightly longer time horizon.
Looking Back: The Cycle Low of 2022
This is clear from the start, as the report begins with a look back at the cycle low of 2022. This was crypto’s rock bottom in a brutal bear market that’s thankfully now long in the past. It was a year when macroeconomic headwinds dovetailed with the collapse of Luna, FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, and others, bringing crypto into existential crisis territory.
BTC fell below $16,000, ETH hit $1,100, and before the year was over, SOL dropped under $10. If you bought, fought, and held BTC or SOL since then, congratulations—you have nerves of steel, and you’re probably rich now.
The Remarkable Crypto Comeback
The report illustrates this using what’s called the realized cap of BTC, SOL, and ETH to show how far we’ve come since January 2023.
Understanding Realized Cap
Realized cap isn’t a term you hear every day in crypto, and it’s quite different from market cap. Whereas market cap is just price multiplied by supply, realized cap is the cumulative sum of all realized profits minus realized losses. This measures the actual money invested in an asset by tracking the price at which each coin last moved.
Growth in Realized Cap (2023-2025)
From January 2023 to January 2025:
- BTC’s realized cap grew by 121% from $381 billion to $843 billion.
- SOL’s realized cap grew by 295% from $21 billion to $83 billion.
- ETH’s realized cap grew by 45% from $176 billion to $256 billion.
ETH underperformance aside, it’s amazing how far crypto has come. However, the further we get from the previous bear market, the closer we get to the next one.
The Influence of the US Government
Crypto-Friendly Administration
Now we have the confounding influence of the US government being reborn as crypto-friendly. This is very positive for crypto per se and feels like a spanner in the works for the bears. We’re just weeks into the new Trump Administration, which will now be humming along in the background for the next four years.
Impact on Market Cycles
However, whether a pro-crypto US government is enough to prolong crypto’s historical market cycles of boom and bust remains to be seen. We don’t have a crystal ball, but we are pretty sure that the next bear market will arrive under a very pro-crypto Trump Administration, likely catching a lot of permabulls off guard.
Meme Coins and Market Trends
The Rise and Fall of Meme Coins
The second trend covered in this report is almost certainly how the current market cycle will be remembered: meme coins. The first few weeks of 2025 have been a real bloodbath for memes, but they had an incredible run last year, attracting the greatest share of capital in the altcoin universe.
Solana’s Role in Meme Coin Mania
No discussion of the meme coin mania of 2024 would be complete without Solana. Last year, speculators flocked to the Solana casino, where fast transactions and low fees combined with user-friendly infrastructure like the Phantom wallet to establish a spiritual home for meme coins once and for all.
Market Metrics
- Solana’s daily active addresses reached 12.3 million in January 2025, 16.2x more than Bitcoin and 24.6x more than Ethereum.
- Solana’s transaction volume peaked at $37 billion per day, surpassing both BTC and ETH.
Derivatives Trading and Leverage Growth
Record-Breaking Futures Trading
Derivatives trading volumes reached new heights in 2024 after Bitcoin broke above $100,000 for the first time. 24-hour futures trading volume across BTC, ETH, and SOL raced to a new all-time high of $120 billion, representing a level of demand comparable to the peak of the 2021 bull run.
Leverage Buildup and Liquidation Risks
From January 2024 to January 2025:
- BTC’s open interest grew 216% from $16.1 billion to $50.9 billion.
- ETH open interest increased by 196% from $6.7 billion to $19.8 billion.
- SOL open interest swelled by 2,192% from $1.3 billion to $5.1 billion.
Regional Trends in the Crypto Market
US Presidential Elections and BTC Performance
The relationship between US presidential elections and BTC’s price performance is significant. Historically, the six months before elections exhibit low volatility, while the six months after are periods of high volatility and price expansion.
The Rise of APAC Retail Investors
Another major trend highlighted in the report is the growing dominance of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region in retail crypto investment. Since early 2022:
- APAC has experienced year-over-year BTC supply growth of 6.4%.
- The US supply has shrunk by 5.7%.
- Europe has stagnated, with supply down 0.7%.
The Future of the Crypto Market
Institutional Adoption vs. Meme Coin Speculation
As 2025 picks up steam, we’re at an odd juncture in the crypto market. Institutional adoption and the introduction of ETFs indicate a maturing market, while meme coin outperformance suggests that the altcoin market is being usurped by the more speculative Solana casino.
Risks and Caution for Investors
A great deal of leverage has built up in the market since Trump’s election victory, and 2025 has already seen some dramatic liquidation events. While a pro-crypto US government may influence regulation, the market remains unpredictable. Remember: the market will top one day, and it might even do so before you’ve personally landed on the moon. Stay safe out there!
Conclusion
If you got something out of this video, be sure to smash the like button and make sure you’re subscribed to the channel with notifications turned on. As always, thank you for watching, and I’ll see you next time. This is Guy, signing off.
